Friday, November 05, 2004

Iraq War Flip-Flop, Maybe?

When it was first considered, I felt that invading Iraq was a good idea. Not for any of the reasons put forth by the Bush administration. Weapons of mass destruction, Saddam’s collaboration with terrorists, etc.. These motivations are not what motivated me.

I liked the idea of the Iraqi people being liberated from the tyrannical rule of Saddam Hussein. After 26+ years of being under “house arrest” as a country, I felt we (the U.S.) had some responsibility as the most prosperous and powerful nation on the planet to do something.

I had supported our efforts in Kosovo to end the ethnic cleansings there. I supported our humanitarian activities in Somalia. It seemed consist to support the liberation of an oppressed people.

Now, you may ask, why Iraq? Aren’t there many other countries we could help?

I have this handy fire chief metaphor I like to use in response to these type questions. If you’re a fire chief and you come to a city block full of buildings on fire, you have prioritize which building you want to put out first.

You look at which building is most important to the interests of the city -- hospital, a munitions factory, the bank, etc.. You ascertain which building can be put out. If the bowling alley is engulfed, let it go. Which building has the most people who need rescue?

In taking this metaphor into real like, you ask, why not North Korea? Well, they have a huge, heavily armed military. They have nuclear weapons. You can’t put that fire out. Why not the Sudan (Darfur)? I think we do need to insert some sort of calming presence there, but it doesn’t have the critical factors when it comes to our national security.

Iraq had invaded Kuwait in the previous decade. The Hussein regime had killed an estimated 300,000 of its people after that because they were dissidents. Human rights, freedom of speech, or any privileges we have in the U.S. are unheard of there.

On top of that, there was a good chance that they had aided terrorists or could be a breeding ground for them.

As much as my initial knee-jerk reaction is to oppose any military initiative that sounds pre-emptive, I studied the situation from several angles and decided that it was a good idea.

Today, I’m not sure I would.

Okay, you can call me a flip-flopper. I call myself a rational, thinking individual. If you go down a dark alley every day and get mugged, you decide not to down that alley anymore.

I think that war has been terribly handled. We don’t have enough troops. Not enough emphasis was put on what to do after their military is toppled. We failed to understand the cultural problem post-invasion and conquest.

Maybe it’s not the war itself I regret supporting, but the prosecution. The training of Iraqi’s new army is floundering. “New” Iraqi soldiers seemed to have either bulls eyes on their backs or become our newly trained enemies when they defect to insurgents.

And I definitely don’t want to see it as first step to an expanded military interventionist policy to re-shape the Mid East. Which I strongly suspect is the ultimate goal of the “Vulcans” in the Bush administration.

Obviously, we can’t go back in time, but we need to be honest about the situation. President Bush is trying to paint a positive picture of the situation and who blames, but it is pretty bleak. Since the toppling of Saddam, the situation in Iraq has spiraled down and out of control. The “Plan” is way off-course and having the conviction to stick with it doesn’t make him sound commanding, it makes him sound ignorant. I wouldn’t look down on him, if he said we need to make a major course change, but it’s difficult to support a stubborn course when you know it leads to disaster – repeatedly.

Come up with a new plan and I might stay on board. If not, and I’m flip-flopping. It’s my prerogative, I’m an American, not an Iraqi.

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3 Comments:

At 4:32 PM, Blogger Mike Atwell said...

Read this story that indicates our primary interest in Iraq:

Secrets of Cheney's energy task force come to light. Sources: Judicial Watch (07/17/03); Foreign Policy in Focus (01/04).
It has become far more common in recent months for mainstream media to suggest that the war in Iraq is being fought not over weapons of mass destruction, but for oil and energy policies that benefit the United States. Far less common is the discussion of ties between Vice President Dick Cheney's Energy Task Force and the current predicament the country finds itself in the Middle East.
During 2000-01, blackouts, oil and natural gas shortages and a dramatic rise in oil imports (over 50% for the first time in history) prompted Bush to establish a task force charged with developing a long-range plan to meet U.S. energy requirements. With the advice of his close friend and largest campaign contributor, Enron CEO, Ken Lay, Bush picked Vice President Dick Cheney, former Halliburton CEO, to head this group.
In 2001 the Task Force formulated the National Energy Policy (NEP), or Cheney Report, bypassing possibilities for energy independence and reduced oil consumption with a declaration of ambitions to establish new sources of oil. Via a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit in 2003, documents revealed the Task's Force interest in Iraqi oilfields as early as March 2001, pre-9/11.
Most major media news organizations have published articles depicting various aspects of the energy crisis the United States continues to find itself in, and its effect on the current foreign policy in the Middle East, Africa and the Caspian Sea basin. Almost all, however, are reluctant to tie Cheney Report, US military policy and current energy policies together.

 
At 11:31 AM, Blogger Mike Atwell said...

Random, I invite you and your readers to examine the painful detail of this history of the middle east in an effort to determine if our foreign policy actions as of late may have deep roots:

Cato Policy Analysis No. 159, August 16, 1991
"'Ancient History': U.S. Conduct in the Middle East
Since World War Il and the Folly Of Intervention"

http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-159.html

 
At 5:30 PM, Blogger Random said...

Water Tower:

Again, thanks for your thoughtful responses.

There's a part of me that thinks that this war is being fought with a clear conviction from people who think they are doing the right thing. Then there's another part of me that drifts toward the "War for oil" argument.

I have to say that after learning more about neo-con convictions, I lean more towards the later. Certainly, the by-product is that we can stablize a source of oil for us, but I truly think they are seeing a broader global strategy.

And as for this strategy, I think it is a very dangerous tact to take and one that we can't possible maintain and support on a practical basis, let alone a moral one.

I did get a chance to review the Cato Institute article and it is truly enlightening, but in many ways I think it supports my argument that this war is a strategy of "True Believers." These neo-cons want to reform the Mid East to benefit the U.S., but the depth of how they underestimate the cutural influences and their resistance to our idea of reformation in their "backyard" is stupifying.

Thanks for reading and commenting. Sorry for the slow replies. Working a full time job doesn't leave a lot of time for being a dilettante pundit.

Thanks,
Random

 

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